A system is a set of interrelated parts that form a whole. Systems thinking is a complex adaptive system. Sarah Quarmby is a Research Assistant at the Wales Centre for Public Policy. The mental model they need is that underneath complex things are simple rules. There’s a relatively simple formula for these complex adaptive systems: autonomous agents follow simple rules based on what’s happening locally around them, the collective dynamics of which lead to the emergence of the complex behavior we see. The karate sensei understands the fundamental movements that combine to produce all karate moves. Let’s revisit the idea that systems thinking, at its core, posits that the problems we face—the wicked problems we’d most like to resolve—are most often attributable to the mismatch between the way real-world systems work and the way we think they work. Required fields are marked *. For example, there are 318 billion possible ways to play the first four moves. What were they following? Featured image credit: Pixabay (Public Domain). It turns out there were no leaders, only followers. The largest human wave consists of 80,000 people acting as a single superorganism with no leadership, all following one simple rule: do what the person to your left does: when they stand, you stand. It is commonly implied that there is such a thing as a complex system across the disciplines. Of course I don’t mean literally go kick a dog; it’s a thought experiment. – there are some important differences between a beehive and a policy system, for example, not least that humans may be aware that they are operating within the context of a complex system and alter their behaviour accordingly. It’s an intuitively exciting approach that seems to capture some fundamental truth about our experience of policy: it suggests that policymaking takes place in a system that operates somewhere on the spectrum between “complicated” and “chaos,” making the results of policy interventions difficult to predict. The benefits of systems thinking are wide-ranging. So systems thinking must be a form of thinking that is somehow qualitatively better at helping us build our mental models. Someday we will develop this mental model and world hunger will no longer be a wicked problem. Let me give you an example of what I mean by complex versus complicated. A complex system is a system composed of many components which may interact with each other. Ole’s 1958 Lego patent (#3005282) states, “the principle object of the invention is to provide for a vast variety of combinations of the bricks for making toy structures of many different kinds and shapes.” And that was the magic of Lego—vast variety from simplicity. The dog is a complex adaptive systems (or CAS), in that it adapts its behavior to better navigate its environment. There needs to be clearer indication of the practical changes that it … A small action can have widespread effects across the system, which is also referred to as non-linearity. At a recent conference on “Systems Perspectives on Policy Development and Evaluation”, those on the practice side of policy seemed less concerned with the theory and more interested in what changes complexity thinking might imply for the way they go about their day-to-day craft. Similarly, complex systems involve feedback mechanisms, so that the results of actions (the outputs) are not commensurate to the original actions (the inputs). The reason we can't solve world hunger is because we don't have a mental model that accounts for the social, economic, political, motivational, and cultural issues that shape the problem. Involving the right stakeholders from the beginning saves time, energy and ultimately, money when making any business decision. This includes sustainability enthusiasts, policymakers, researchers, engineers, business strategists, entrepreneurs, executives, NGO workers, or journalists. Surprisingly, it isn’t the simple rules themselves, which are actually remarkably easy to grasp. Figure 2.17 illustrates the basic idea behind all complex systems—that simple rules and agents lead to collective behavior and emergence. But a number of issues are yet to be resolved. Most of us have never seen the Mona Lisa, a Picasso, a Van Gogh, or a Michelangelo. Can a concept derived from the natural sciences be applicable to the political and social sciences? of systems thinking (systems engineering) that grew out of the resea rch activity from the Second World War. When we think of someone intelligent, we think of someone who speaks in complicated ways, not someone who keeps things simple. Your email address will not be published. Derek Cabrera (Ph.D., Cornell) is an internationally known systems scientist and serves on the faculty of Cornell University where he teaches systems thinking, systems leadership, and systems mapping and is Program Director for the Graduate Certification Program in Systems Thinking, Modeling, and Leadership (STML). Complex adaptive systems thinking is an exciting approach, and the popularity of the theory in the policy literature is testimony to this. Dr. Charles “Chick” Macal is the Chief […] The next four pages provide a quick description for each of these four concepts as well as synonyms you will be familiar with. They followed simple rules that brought about this remarkable, adaptive, and complex behavior. Proponents of complex systems approaches claim that since policymaking is complex, attempts to understand and influence policy need to take this complexity into account. Similarly, Kingdon’s multiple stream analysis (1984) suggests that decisions are made only when three “streams” – policy problems, solutions, and political events – happen to coincide, and when there is a “policy entrepreneur” on hand to take advantage of this. Systems Thinking, a set of problem solving tools and techniques based on system analysis and design, explained by Peter Senge in The Fifth Discipline, helps us avoid unintended consequences and find optimal solutions to complex problems. Kick a dog and it recoils. 3 min read,  Copright 2020 Cabrera Research Lab            Privacy Policy             Legal Stuff, Systems Thinking Is A Complex Adaptive System (CAS), Distinguishing (D) and Systematizing (S) Greebles, A Few Important Distinctions Regarding the Current Constitutional Crisis. A few have been lucky enough to see them in person at the Louvre or other famous places. In sum, a complicated system like the rock doesn't adapt, whereas a complex system like a dog adapts to survive in its environment. Essentially, everything is reliant upon something else for survival. 2 min read, 28 Jan 2021 – If we focus on what systems thinking is we will have little hope of actually achieving it. More than two decades of research went into discovering that there are four simple rules that underlie systems thinking which go by the acronym "DSRP:". If your brain was rendered incapable of any one of them, it would have difficulty thinking about even the most basic things. The behavior of the rock is complicated but not complex; it doesn’t adapt its behavior. In other words, when we ask ourselves how we can become better systems thinkers it is important to realize that systems thinking is an emergent property. We also need to clarify whether there is good cause to apply a natural science theory to political science. But the simplicity that underlies complexity is real. The birds at the bottom of the column are following rules one and two and have no idea that rule three (avoid predators) was followed above. Mr. Miagi is not only a Karate-master, he is also a master teacher. I came across this summary of the general characteristcs of complex systems in a piece he wrote in 2000. And is complex systems thinking a new approach to policy? For example, a wicked problem might be world hunger, yet there is enough food to feed the world (2640 kcal/person/day of per capita food availability), so this issue is resolvable. When we take a systems thinking v2.0 perspective, we think like individual soldiers and rely on the collective dynamics of the system to emerge. What makes these four simple colors amazing isn’t that they are the most beautiful; a world painted in only these four colors alone would be monotonous. Because we are working on complex systems we must have complete coverage. With all these systems as examples, it shouldn't be hard to imagine that something as adaptive and complex as systems thinking could also be predicated upon simple rules. A chess grandmaster understands the simple rules that combine into numerous possibilities in the game of chess. I keep hearing that because we are working on complex systems we cannot have full coverage of what to look for. It is a mental framework that helps us to become better problem solvers. By systems thinking I refer to the school of thought that started with Jay Forrester and has expanded systems dynamics into other fields such as management: Peter … Today Lego, with headquarters in Billund, Denmark, is the sixth largest toy company in the world, with over 5,000 employees and revenue of 7.8 billion Danish Kroner. Complex adaptive systems thinking is an exciting approach, and the popularity of the theory in the policy literature is testimony to this. But there’s simply not enough time for communication to occur between the leader and the follower, nor enough time for the signal to spread. Likewise, few of us are awe-inspired by the mention of Adenine, Guanine, Cytosine, or Thymine, or ATCG, the organic molecules of DNA. Wicked problems are deemed so for a reason: the systems that lead to them are complex, which means that they are harder to build mental models of and to understand. She is also a senior researcher at the Cabrera Research Lab. It is concise and accessible qualitative description of complexity and I thought it would be useful to share here on my blog. This may go some way to assuage concerns voiced by academics about how to prevent policymakers feeling nihilistic when faced with knowledge that the world is complex, and the results of actions difficult to predict. He knows that to achieve the outcome Daniel-san desires, his student will need to be able to adapt to the unpredictable future of bullying, fights, and competition. System theory or systems science interdisciplinary study of systems in which System Thinking can be learned. systems thinking; systems engineering; complex systems; complexity; unifiability; The Winter 2020 issue of the National Academy of Engineering’s journal The Bridge explores the themes of complexity and unifiability. Distinctions Rule: Any idea or thing can be distinguished from the other ideas or things it is with; Systems Rule: Any idea or thing can be split into parts or lumped into a whole; Relationships Rule: Any idea or thing can relate to other things or ideas; and. In my previous episodes of this series on Systems Thinking, I elaborated on what systems Thinking is and on the Wicked Problems Systems Thinking is trying to solve.In this episode, I want to explore Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). If systems thinking is an emergent property, then those aspiring to be better systems thinkers must focus their efforts where they have influence: executing the simple rules. Beehives and the human brain are commonly given as examples of complex adaptive systems – understanding how a bee works will only go so far as to understanding how a bee colony operates. It’s called “Systems Thinking and Complex Systems.” Here is an early version. The solution requires a deeper understanding of the varied systems that contribute to world hunger, and that can be difficult, but it is not the case that we need to transgress the laws of physics in order to solve the problem of world hunger. The problem is, we distrust it. Yet we are all familiar with (and could describe) the Mona Lisa. Anything imaginable could be built. Instead, they are generally understood in terms of some key characteristics. What are we saying that is different from “we need to take the wider context into account,” and “it’s hard to predict all possible consequences of any given action”? The seemingly simple moves of chess combine into staggering mathematical possibilities. All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of LSE British Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics and Political Science. Learn about the value of systems thinking within your daily life and work and discover the fundamental mismatch between VUCA world and LAMO thinking. Systems engineering is a methodology where an interdisciplinary approach is applied, using systems thinking, to the development of a system of interest. Those who have attempted to study or shape policy might attest to this understanding. A widely accepted definition of complexity in the context of policy would add weight to evidence found to support the theory. The longest game of chess that is theoretically possible involves 5,949 moves. Otherwise, it's just plain old thinking, with all its sundry biases and issues. Unifiability is both an engineering ethos and also a broader cultural responsibility. This means that you can’t understand the system just by looking at its individual elements, but rather it has to be studied as a whole. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. 3 min read, 13 Jan 2021 – Take a look at the flocking behavior of what amounts to millions of starlings. The main aim is to show students how complex systems science is applied by Utrecht University researchers to challenging societal problems. Here are a few examples of complex things that have relatively simple rules underneath. As we have given talks and trainings throughout the world to diverse audiences, we have discovered one big barrier that impedes understanding systems thinking v2.0. We've discovered that once people understand that simplicity underlies complexity, deep understanding and success in systems thinking v2.0 is a breeze. Managing Complex Systems: Thinking Outside the Box: Amazon.it: Eisner, Howard: Libri in altre lingue A thing or idea can simultaneously be a distinct thing, a perspective, a part of a larger whole and a relationship. These initiatives often target several levels (e.g. To accept cookies, click continue. Managing Complex Systems: Thinking Outside the Box Dr. Howard Eisner Nine innovative methods to think outside the box and solve complex system problems Managing Complex Systems provides specific tools and guidance needed to be a more creative and innovative thinker. 8 Feb 2021 – Such approaches are being applied to policy research and practice in a wide variety of ways and much of the discussion from the academic world has focused on their theoretical implications. In this online course, we combine examples across physics, the life sciences, socio-economic sciences and humanities with an introduction to basic mathematical tools to learn a complex systems way of thinking. To prepare him for such an unpredictable future, rather than teaching him a laundry list of moves, Mr. Miagi focuses on the simple underlying fundamentals that can be combined and recombined: wax on-wax off, paint the fence, side to side, and sand the floor. When scientists first began studying such systems we thought they must have exceptionally good leaders! Daniel-san is pissed off and he’s had enough and is going to quit, but he’s about to have his mind blown instead. In one of our favorite scenes from The Karate Kid, Daniel-san has asked Mr. Miagi to teach him karate and all he seems to be doing is hard labor and household chores around Mr. Miagi’s property. There needs to be clearer indication of the practical changes that it implies (if any) for policy research and practice. We talk about interconnectedness not in a spiritual way, but in a biological sciences way. On the other hand, some experts are questioning whether a concept derived from the natural sciences is applicable to the political and social sciences, and whether there is much to be gained from comparing policy systems to ones arising in nature. RIP, Excerpt from the book: Systems Thinking Made Simple, Chapter 2. Examples of complex systems are Earth's global climate, organisms, the human brain, infrastructure such as power grid, transportation or communication systems, social and economic organizations (like cities), an ecosystem, a living cell, and ultimately the entire universe. Itad's Ed Hedley reflects on one of the main themes from the 2019 UK Evaluation Society conference, complex systems thinking and asks what an appreciation of messier realities means for evaluation practice. Add in the capacity for self-organisation, and emergent behaviour that is not the result of central control, and you have a complex adaptive system. It's called a superorganism, a bunch of individual organisms that act like a single organism. However you choose to use LOOPY, hopefully it can give you not just the software tools, but also the mental tools to understand the complex systems of the world around us. Ole Kirk Christiansen, a carpenter, founded Lego in 1932. In the next chapter, you will see that—like bird flocks, biodiversity, karate sensei, or grandmasters—all systems thinking is predicated on simple rules. When they sit, you sit. We now know that underlying complex adaptive systems are simple rules. Now try the same experiment on a dog. At one end of the spectrum, this approach is being offered as a “new scientific paradigm” for studying the social world. The systems thinker is not so different. Conceived as a whole greater than the sum of individual components, health promoting schools produce synergistic effects where health, educational and social development of students and personnel is optimized (Allensworth and Ko… Complex systems research is becoming ever more important in both the natural and social sciences. Kick a rock over and over again and it doesn’t change its behavior. Because of four simple colors—Cyan, Magenta, Yellow, and Black, or CMYK. Systems thinking requires a shift in mindset, away from linear to circular. Iain Couzin, who studies collective animal behavior at Princeton University, did a simulation to show exactly what rules these flocks were following and found just three: In the video you can actually see the simple rules perturb through the system as predatory hawks attempt to catch the birds. The most important feature is that complex systems behave in a way that is greater than the sum of their individual parts. How do you look at a star-nosed mole rat or a seahorse or a giraffe or a platypus and not think: nature is really creative and has an amazing sense of humor. Regarding the systems thinking-action problem you mentioned, complex systems science provides methods (agent-based modelling) not only to model non-linear phenomena, but to deal with the adaptive behavior of individuals, like for assessing how actual citizens will react to the introduction of certain policies with less uncertainty than with conventional analytical or inferential methods. The qualities, disposition, and skills that make up a systems thinker rely on a deep understanding of a simple set of rules. Systems thinking is way to make sense of a complex system that gives attention to exploring the relationships, boundaries and perspectives in a system. Built on autonomous agents following simple local rules, chess’s potential for complexity is immense. When we face wicked problems, we don’t think to ourselves the answer is simple. Links are also being made to wicked problems, and there is the suggestion that complex systems thinking might be the most appropriate way to approach these issues that seem to frustrate traditional policy methods. These four rules do not operate in isolation, but in parallel. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, Systems Perspectives on Policy Development and Evaluation, “systems thinking-talking to systems thinking-action, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported. Klijn suggests that some elements of this approach, specifically non-linearity and behaviour that is not dependent on central control, can be found in existing policy theories. The longest actual chess game ended in a draw after 269 moves and 20 hours and 15 minutes of play. But social scientists have a duty to probe their intuitions to see if there are practical and theoretical implications of the approach. 3.2 The Engineering of Systems: Constructing Complex Structures In other words, systems thinking is about building mental models that better align with real-world systems than those created under a non-systems thinking approach. But a number of issues are yet to be resolved. What makes them special is that they interact together in a complex way that makes an infinite array of colors possible. Figure 2.11 depicts the basic features of complex adaptive systems. a tool for thinking in systems. “Systems thinking helps you move through a decision logically, continuously asking if this decision will impact anyone outside the scope,” said Dumeng. It doesn’t change. What then causes this behavior? Complex systems thinking in international development. For example, the garbage can model (from 1972) conceives of organisations as organised anarchies where decisions are made by chaotically mixing problems and solutions together like rubbish in a bin, rather than being the result of a single rational decision-maker. Frequent mention is made in the academic literature to the need to clarify the way that this approach can be put into practice empirically, or as Holmes and Noel put it, move from “systems thinking-talking to systems thinking-action.” The variety in definitions of complex systems within the social and political sciences, however, makes this process less straightforward and risks undermining the empirical evidence produced. These types of systems–seen across the physical, natural and social sciences in flocks, schools of fish, traffic patterns, ant colonies and across the spectrum of nature land human society–baffled scientists because it was unclear how the group behavior occurred in the absence of a leader. In addition, thinking itself is a complex system, if not the most complex system known to mankind. The health promoting schools approach reflects a comprehensive and integrated philosophy to improving student and personnel health and well-being (St. Leger et al., 2007). The fundamental principle of this shift is that everything is interconnected. A system is not the sum of its parts, but rather the product of their interaction. These types of systems are based on simple, local rules. Your email address will not be published. Instead we must focus on the simple rules and agents that bring about systems thinking. There are 1.7 x 1029 possibilities for the first 10 moves. Our post today is about complex adaptive systems (CAS), in memory of English mathematician and systems thinker John Conway who died on April 11, 2020 due to COVID-19. How? In his PrepTalk, Dr. Charles “Chick” Macal explains the elements of complex adaptive systems, the tools used to analyze systems, and how systems thinking can improve emergency management. Very insightful! Most importantly, we should be wary of accepting the approach first and then looking for evidence to support it, rather than following the normal social science method of evaluating whether there is evidence in favour or against a given hypothesis. Let's review the basic logic of the situation: Complexity theory tells us to look for the simple rules that underlie the complex and adaptive human behavior that we know as “thinking.” So what are the simple rules that underlie both the complex systems that make up the world and the way we think about those systems? Kick it again and it circles away. The process of systems thinking results in a product: mental models. He is a senior scientist at Cabrera Research Lab. Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. During the course of this conflict with Mr. Miagi, he realizes he has been taught four simple movements that underlie all of the strikes, kicks, and blocks that make up karate. We don’t think of simplicity as a good thing. Systems Thinking Is a Complex Emergent Property of Four Simple Rules. Everything … In this way, Leykum et al’s paper, which finds that diabetes interventions that take complexity into account tend to be more effective than those that do not, is an important contribution to the complex systems literature, but perhaps cannot speak for complex systems approaches as a whole. This ExpertTrack will be interesting to professionals who want to leverage systems thinking to better understand complex systems, and take practical steps to drive sustainable change. Complex systems thinking is experiencing a moment of popularity within the worlds of policy research and practice. With just 6 unique pieces (sixteen total per side) and a simple set of local rules, perhaps nothing captures the complexity-simplicity paradigm better than chess. In 1947, Ole got samples of a plastic brick invented and patented (“self locking building bricks”) by Mr. Hilary “Harry” Fisher Page in Britain, and began creating the automatic binding bricks which we know today as Lego Bricks, a name that originated in 1953. It is revered as a complex game, causing us to bestow grandmasters with the title of genius, yet it is a game a child can learn to play at an early age. The theory has its roots in the natural sciences, and there is no singly accepted definition for complex systems as they apply to policy. Conway developedConway's Game of Life, a cellular automata that animated complex adaptive systems for generations of people. These four simple rules combine in an infinite number of ways to develop Daniel-san as an adaptive, robust, and resilient fighter. Each time, it follows the same laws of physics. Inspiring news (engl-fr- de) that help to develop a systemic, mindful, complex adaptive thinking and leadership [Page 3] filtered by systems_thinking This is because understanding the simple rules is not difficult, but understanding how the simple rules work is not possible without understanding complexity. I think it is just the opposite. These mental models are representations, approximations, guesses, hypotheses, biases, or predictions about the real world. Underlying all of the complex and adaptive biodiversity of life itself is simplicity. Remarkable. individual, professional, procedural and policy) simultaneously. Over the past decade, Cabrera has applied her expertise in research methods and translational research to increase public understanding, practical application, and dissemination of sophisticated systems science and systems thinking models. What we know about complex systems is that underlying their complexity are simple rules. But most of us have never seen the real thing. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. Simple rules underlie complex systems. Sarah Quarmby looks at some key questions surrounding complex systems approaches, and considers what these can and can’t add to our understanding of policy. Charles Darwin in The Origin of Species wrote, “from so simple a beginning endless forms most beautiful and most wonderful have been, and are being, evolved.” He only had an inkling of what we would later discover to be the hand of DNA, but his mindset was one of simplicity and complexity.
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